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  • Don’t bet against the Brexit party winning the EU elections | Chris Curtis | Opinion

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See the news Don’t bet against the Brexit party winning the EU elections | Chris Curtis | Opinion from Source WSJ on 16/04/2019 has been updated to day with the theme on feedixo.

Don’t bet against the Brexit party winning the EU elections | Chris Curtis | Opinion

In 2014 Nigel Farage shocked Westminster by leading Ukip to victory in the last European parliament elections: the first time the Conservatives or Labour hadn’t topped the ballot in a nationwide election since 1906. Since then Farage has left the party and officially launched the new Brexit party to fight this round of somewhat unexpected EU elections. At the launch, Farage put his money where his mouth is, announcing he had placed a £1,000 bet on his newly formed party topping the ballot in next month’s vote.At the weekend YouGov released the first YouGov/Times poll of the EU election campaign. Farage’s party currently finds itself in third place on 15%, within the margin of error of the Conservatives on 16%, but currently a way behind Labour who are on 24%. However, there are many reasons to believe they will make up that ground over the coming weeks, and Farage’s gamble looks like a fairly smart bet.It is entirely plausible that we are facing another Farage-shaped upset at the ballot boxThe polling shows that a significant chunk of voters who backed the Conservatives in 2017 are dissatisfied with the direction the party is heading on Brexit. Just 11% think the government is handling Brexit well, compared with 84% who think they are handling it badly. Additionally, many more voters who backed the Conservatives at the last election think that leaving the EU without a deal – which the Brexit party is advocating – would be a good outcome than think Theresa May’s deal would be a good outcome (it’s 48% for the former versus 21% for the latter). This is part of what is driving the drop-off in support for the Conservatives, with just a quarter (25%) of those who backed the party in 2017, and just 12% of leave voters, currently saying they will vote Conservative in the EU elections. The difficulty for Farage is that these voters aren’t yet moving en masse to his new outfit,...

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See the news Don’t bet against the Brexit party winning the EU elections | Chris Curtis | Opinion from Source WSJ on 16/04/2019 has been updated to day with the theme on feedixo.